我们考虑随机对照试验的差异问题，通过使用与结果相关的协变量但与治疗无关。我们提出了一种机器学习回归调整的处理效果估算器，我们称之为Mlrate。 Mlrate使用机器学习预测结果来降低估计方差。它采用交叉配件来避免过度偏置，在一般条件下，我们证明了一致性和渐近正常性。 Mlrate对机器学习的预测较差的鲁棒步骤：如果预测与结果不相关，则估计器执行渐近的差异，而不是标准差异估计器，而如果预测与结果高度相关，则效率提升大。在A / A测试中，对于在Facebook实验中通常监测的一组48个结果指标，估计器的差异比简单差分估计器差异超过70％，比仅调整的共同单变量过程约19％用于结果的预测值。

Automatic music generation with artificial intelligence typically requires a large amount of data which is hard to obtain for many less common genres and musical instruments. To tackle this issue, we present ongoing work and preliminary findings on the possibility for deep models to transfer knowledge from language to music, by finetuning large language models pre-trained on a massive text corpus on only hundreds of MIDI files of drum performances. We show that by doing so, one of the largest, state-of-the-art models (GPT3) is capable of generating reasonable drum grooves, while models that are not pre-trained (Transformer) shows no such ability beyond naive repetition. Evaluating generated music is a challenging task, more so is evaluating drum grooves with little precedence in literature. Hence, we propose a tailored structural evaluation method and analyze drum grooves produced by GPT3 compared to those played by human professionals, exposing the strengths and weaknesses of such generation by language-to-music transfer. Our findings suggest that language-to-music transfer learning with large language models is viable and promising.

Many popular policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning follow a biased approximation of the policy gradient known as the discounted approximation. While it has been shown that the discounted approximation of the policy gradient is not the gradient of any objective function, little else is known about its convergence behavior or properties. In this paper, we show that if the discounted approximation is followed such that the discount factor is increased slowly at a rate related to a decreasing learning rate, the resulting method recovers the standard guarantees of gradient ascent on the undiscounted objective.

Traditionally, data analysis and theory have been viewed as separate disciplines, each feeding into fundamentally different types of models. Modern deep learning technology is beginning to unify these two disciplines and will produce a new class of predictively powerful space weather models that combine the physical insights gained by data and theory. We call on NASA to invest in the research and infrastructure necessary for the heliophysics' community to take advantage of these advances.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in natural language understanding and generation, but the quality bar for medical and clinical applications is high. Today, attempts to assess models' clinical knowledge typically rely on automated evaluations on limited benchmarks. There is no standard to evaluate model predictions and reasoning across a breadth of tasks. To address this, we present MultiMedQA, a benchmark combining six existing open question answering datasets spanning professional medical exams, research, and consumer queries; and HealthSearchQA, a new free-response dataset of medical questions searched online. We propose a framework for human evaluation of model answers along multiple axes including factuality, precision, possible harm, and bias. In addition, we evaluate PaLM (a 540-billion parameter LLM) and its instruction-tuned variant, Flan-PaLM, on MultiMedQA. Using a combination of prompting strategies, Flan-PaLM achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on every MultiMedQA multiple-choice dataset (MedQA, MedMCQA, PubMedQA, MMLU clinical topics), including 67.6% accuracy on MedQA (US Medical License Exam questions), surpassing prior state-of-the-art by over 17%. However, human evaluation reveals key gaps in Flan-PaLM responses. To resolve this we introduce instruction prompt tuning, a parameter-efficient approach for aligning LLMs to new domains using a few exemplars. The resulting model, Med-PaLM, performs encouragingly, but remains inferior to clinicians. We show that comprehension, recall of knowledge, and medical reasoning improve with model scale and instruction prompt tuning, suggesting the potential utility of LLMs in medicine. Our human evaluations reveal important limitations of today's models, reinforcing the importance of both evaluation frameworks and method development in creating safe, helpful LLM models for clinical applications.

As text generated by large language models proliferates, it becomes vital to understand how humans engage with such text, and whether or not they are able to detect when the text they are reading did not originate with a human writer. Prior work on human detection of generated text focuses on the case where an entire passage is either human-written or machine-generated. In this paper, we study a more realistic setting where text begins as human-written and transitions to being generated by state-of-the-art neural language models. We show that, while annotators often struggle at this task, there is substantial variance in annotator skill and that given proper incentives, annotators can improve at this task over time. Furthermore, we conduct a detailed comparison study and analyze how a variety of variables (model size, decoding strategy, fine-tuning, prompt genre, etc.) affect human detection performance. Finally, we collect error annotations from our participants and use them to show that certain textual genres influence models to make different types of errors and that certain sentence-level features correlate highly with annotator selection. We release the RoFT dataset: a collection of over 21,000 human annotations paired with error classifications to encourage future work in human detection and evaluation of generated text.

Traditional approaches to RL have focused on learning decision policies directly from episodic decisions, while slowly and implicitly learning the semantics of compositional representations needed for generalization. While some approaches have been adopted to refine representations via auxiliary self-supervised losses while simultaneously learning decision policies, learning compositional representations from hand-designed and context-independent self-supervised losses (multi-view) still adapts relatively slowly to the real world, which contains many non-IID subspaces requiring rapid distribution shift in both time and spatial attention patterns at varying levels of abstraction. In contrast, supervised language model cascades have shown the flexibility to adapt to many diverse manifolds, and hints of self-learning needed for autonomous task transfer. However, to date, transfer methods for language models like few-shot learning and fine-tuning still require human supervision and transfer learning using self-learning methods has been underexplored. We propose a self-supervised loss policy called contrastive distillation which manifests latent variables with high mutual information with both source and target tasks from weights to tokens. We show how this outperforms common methods of transfer learning and suggests a useful design axis of trading off compute for generalizability for online transfer. Contrastive distillation is improved through sampling from memory and suggests a simple algorithm for more efficiently sampling negative examples for contrastive losses than random sampling.

Our earlier research built a virtual shake robot in simulation to study the dynamics of precariously balanced rocks (PBR), which are negative indicators of earthquakes in nature. The simulation studies need validation through physical experiments. For this purpose, we developed Shakebot, a low-cost (under $2,000), open-source shake table to validate simulations of PBR dynamics and facilitate other ground motion experiments. The Shakebot is a custom one-dimensional prismatic robotic system with perception and motion software developed using the Robot Operating System (ROS). We adapted affordable and high-accuracy components from 3D printers, particularly a closed-loop stepper motor for actuation and a toothed belt for transmission. The stepper motor enables the bed to reach a maximum horizontal acceleration of 11.8 m/s^2 (1.2 g), and velocity of 0.5 m/s, when loaded with a 2 kg scale-model PBR. The perception system of the Shakebot consists of an accelerometer and a high frame-rate camera. By fusing camera-based displacements with acceleration measurements, the Shakebot is able to carry out accurate bed velocity estimation. The ROS-based perception and motion software simplifies the transition of code from our previous virtual shake robot to the physical Shakebot. The reuse of the control programs ensures that the implemented ground motions are consistent for both the simulation and physical experiments, which is critical to validate our simulation experiments.

Story generation and understanding -- as with all NLG/NLU tasks -- has seen a surge in neurosymbolic work. Researchers have recognized that, while large language models (LLMs) have tremendous utility, they can be augmented with symbolic means to be even better and to make up for any flaws that the neural networks might have. However, symbolic methods are extremely costly in terms of the amount of time and expertise needed to create them. In this work, we capitalize on state-of-the-art Code-LLMs, such as Codex, to bootstrap the use of symbolic methods for tracking the state of stories and aiding in story understanding. We show that our CoRRPUS system and abstracted prompting procedures can beat current state-of-the-art structured LLM techniques on pre-existing story understanding tasks (bAbI task 2 and Re^3) with minimal hand engineering. We hope that this work can help highlight the importance of symbolic representations and specialized prompting for LLMs as these models require some guidance for performing reasoning tasks properly.

We propose a novel task, G4C (Goal-driven Guidance Generation in Grounded Communication), for studying goal-driven and grounded natural language interactions. Specifically, we choose Dungeons and Dragons (D&D) -- a role-playing game consisting of multiple player characters and a Dungeon Master (DM) who collaborate to achieve a set of goals that are beneficial to the players -- as a testbed for this task. Here, each of the player characters is a student, with their own personas and abilities, and the DM is the teacher, an arbitrator of the rules of the world and responsible for assisting and guiding the students towards a global goal. We propose a theory-of-mind-inspired methodology for training such a DM with reinforcement learning (RL), where a DM: (1) learns to predict how the players will react to its utterances using a dataset of D&D dialogue transcripts; and (2) uses this prediction as a reward function providing feedback on how effective these utterances are at guiding the players towards a goal. Human and automated evaluations show that a DM trained with RL to generate guidance by incorporating a theory-of-mind of the players significantly improves the players' ability to achieve goals grounded in their shared world.